The Next 12 Phases of Tesla Demand

Do you want to know what year I think Tesla will have ~20M annual product demand (meaning the desire is strong enough and funds are secured for purchase)? My answer is in this episode.

Tesla is a technology company that makes student robots of autonomy. Right now, the most popular is of the motor vehicle variety. In many different ways, technology will help Tesla through 2030, past 2032, after 2036, 2038, and beyond. Social media platforms help Tesla too. Content creators on all of the different platforms help educate any of the masses of people that are finally ready to listen. The technology in the vehicles Tesla makes is tremendous!

How does this help Tesla? It creates more demand for their products.

Can the reach of the branches of Tesla's tech trees be measured? That is what I attempt to do in this episode. My best bet is to remain open minded and conservative with my estimations. Here's the most important question I attempt to answer in this episode:

How many newbies will want a Tesla product and also be able to afford one (or two)? Let's find out together. There are some factors we ought to consider and calculate. Global population is one (which includes a fluctuation of tech availability that eventually increases over time). Influencer effect is another branch of tech. The technology Tesla installs in each product is one more factor to ponder. Part of this is Tesla’s unique manufacturing technology — yet another huge role in estimating newbie demand.

Now, let's get ready. Here's what I have gathered to get this thing started:

• Scrap paper

• Black pen

• Blue pen

• Red pen

• Pink marker

• Orange marker

• Sticky notes

• Hard copies of research

• Research notebooks

• Phone

• Google search

• Caffeine!

I will add all of the pictures and screenshots I took for this study. Not everything is included (I tossed a couple of notes/math), but I'm giving you everything I got in this episode! I'll try to explain my way through this process. Before we begin to measure Phase 1, we must calculate all of the factors that exist and have potential to take place. By the end, we'll even get to see how all of the automotive competition measures up to Tesla product demand.

Here are my sources for vehicle demand, automotive market share, & Tesla events:

• https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2019/03/tesla-model-3-demographics-income/

• https://insideevs.com/news/663513/tesla-market-share-2023q1/

• https://www.tesla.com/events?lat=15.0979&lng=145.6739

The other sources are in my screenshots.

First of all, we know that Tesla has growing vehicle demand. Tesla has far more happy customers than the old luxury car brands. This is a trend, right? Good, I see it as a trend as well. That's positive news for future Tesla product demand.

Tesla has — pound for pound — the most repeat customers. Oh, no! Doesn't that mean Tesla is going to lose demand? As long as Tesla keeps optimizing factory performance, they should be able to keep up with the demand. In fact, I've mentioned in previous episodes that I believe Tesla controls their destiny by using different demand levers for the smoothest transitions (from phase to phase). After someone switches from a Toyota or a Honda car to a Tesla; and after knowing that person is 67% more likely to stick with Tesla, it is safe to say that (this analogy won't work) Tesla product demand can reverse positions with legacy auto like legacy auto hoped off of the seesaw and Tesla dropped to the ground. In other words, Tesla’s tech trees have roots. Those roots strengthen to form a wide base and a strong structure and foundation. Legacy auto trees, look out! Get too close and you won't find room to stretch your roots. You won't grow as fast. Then, your tech branches will miss sunlight because Tesla's tech trees have grown bigger, wider, higher, and healthier. Maybe one day, we can use legacy auto trees to build a Tesla tree house!

Why so silly? I'm sorry, everyone — just having some fun. Actually, it is a serious question for legacy auto to answer. Nowadays, their overall response is to go on strike. It's been mostly malinvestment by the old car companies. No investment in their employees over about the last fifteen years. Now a strike brings their demise sooner. Unemployment & bankruptcy? Surely! Bailouts? Likely. Then quantitative easing. Following that, an onslaught of financial and real asset investments. This rips open the gap between social economic classes. As I called them in my Tesla vs. The Macro Spotify podcast, the “richies” and the poor people.

And this shows the strength of the Tesla Community as well. Who's in the Tesla Community? That depends on who you are asking. For me, it's everyone that helps Tesla by doing things like buying a Tesla product, maintaining a Tesla product, talking about Tesla, working on Tesla related products, attending Tesla events…

What else? I'll tell you what else:

49% is a pretty good statistic for content creators. There is also a rule of thumb about 10% social media engagement. I will use the influencer measurement above, the 10% rule, and I'll also use a tweaked version of each for my projection/prediction/look (you'll know what I mean when you see the chart).

Who does Tesla want to reach with the branches of its tech trees? Anybody with desire and dough. According to the technoking, we need to procreate, but here's who have so far:

Tesla mostly produces battery electric products like the Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y variations. Plus, Tesla has begun production of the Semi Truck. The Cybertruck is right around the corner. There will also be other products like a compact car, a van, a bus, a humanoid robot, and a variety of other battery electric products.

Elon's other teams will provide technology to help spread the good news about Tesla's bigger and more sustainable future. What does that mean? People that don't have developed technologies yet shall eventually have new opportunities to attain them. SpaceX’s Starlink comes to mind.

Let's move on. There is a lot more to consider before we can calculate Tesla’s potential product demand. There are more factors to measure before hitting Phase 1. So what else matters? I am glad that you asked. Let's move on to the poor people:

For now, these nations have the least amount of motor vehicles per person.